The Math and Pace of Catching the Phillies

The following dates break the remainder of the season down into 7, ten-game stretches. An additional 8th period, made up of the final 5 games of season, is not factored.

Period 1,By end of 7.26.09: 5.5 Games Back
Period 2,By end of 8.05.09: 4.5 Games Back
Period 3,By end of 8.16.09: 3.5 Games Back
Period 4,By end of 8.26.09: 2.5 Games Back
Period 5,By end of 9.06.09: 1.5 Games Back
Period 6,By end of 9.17.09: 0.5 Games Back
Period 7,By end of 9.28.09: 0.5 Ahead?
Period 8,Final 5 games remain

For the Mets to make a run at the division title they would need to gain 1 game on the phillies every 10 games played. They sit 6.5 games out at the all star break with just under half the games, 75 to be exact, to play. They remain the same amount of games back in the wildcard so the same pace applies. Of course what isn't factored are the other teams that also control their own destiny. But If the Mets can maintain this scale they will make it interesting. I will use this scale to reference their chances.

Cliff Lee for Parnell and Martinez? ...Yes!

so if it would take parnell and martinez, to get carols lee here, you do it. 1santana, 2lee, 3pelfrey,4 hernandez and either nieve, perez in the 5 spot. then you move maine into parnell's former role. either way parnell can be replaced with the odd man out of the rotation. reed and perez can earn whatever they earn. however the rest of the staff unfolds is a secondary concern when you consider the solidification and stableness of your front two. ........so you lose a hot prospect for a cy young winner. i'm almost always for proven commodities over guys that may or may not pan out. of course you are giving up a future value for a guy that is a free agent, but i don't worry about "what-ifs" and take what i know. and such a move improves the team now. and after missing the playoffs two years in a row-coming as close as they did with failure- to add last year's AL Cy Young winner would be a fantastic move. the mets should be aggressive in improving their team via the trade market. everyone thinks bats first due to their injuries, but a solid 1-2 punch in the rotation would help their overall winning chances just as much..... i don't know if they can restructure a deal though, that isn't in Lee's favor probably. and i don't even know the major league policy but if there is a way to keep him long term, do what you have to in order to make it happen. they'd then have two studs in the front of the rotation and maybe even strengthen their bullpen in turn. fernando? i like his potential, but the productive outfielder in baseball can be attained anyway, with more ease than landing a solid pitcher.

1.5 Out of the Playoffs

The Mets most important competition may be the Cardinals, not the Phillies. The Cards only have the best player on the planet, and are a consistently overlooked team that has won the Pennant twice under Pujols' lead. Again though, the Mets sit in this position despite getting tons of bad breaks due especially to injury. With over half the season left, they can only get stronger, with health.

Glass Half Full

Fans have the tendency to follow the baseball season and die with every pitch. From Ryan Church's missed third base in LA to Louis Castillo's subway-series-deciding drop, there have been more mood-changing moments on par with feelings of being stunned, frustrated, and just plain depressed, than there have been moments of elation such as Omir Santos' shocking Papelbon blast to stun the Sox.

It's part of the passion, part of the reason that a championship is such a special moment to us, because we sit through most of our time as fans inevitably being disappointed almost every year, by the outcome. It's math. It's odds. It's life...as a sports fan. If baseball is a companion that is there day in-and-out for half a year, than we need to learn to relax. Sure the payoff from the good times seem to make the bad times well-worth it. We all know what it's like to allow a children's game played by millionaires, to impact our state of mind for entire days. And I get that the passion is part of the fun and we live and die by the gun. But even for a good team, A GREAT team, following a season means being disappointed at least 60 times a season. That's a lot of disappointment!

Of course to just brush off every loss as if it doesn't matter or affect us, does cheapen the wins. You do have to suffer to appreciate the rare moments of major milestones like making the postseason or even rarer, winning one. But what I have come to learn is that the Mets are going have a million WTF moments through one season. It is a marathon. Mistakes will be made, but ultimately the Mets will be in the discussion come September. So don't give yourself a heart attack just yet Mets fans, that is what September is for. Sure these games count just as much. But either way think of this notion...

IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY THE METS ARE IN. THIS CONSIDERING ALL THE CRAZY MISHAPS AND INJURIES. our situation, as fans, is rather fortunate. We have reason to smile and feel optimistic. We've certainly seen our team's weakest moments. Their negative pinnacle has been reached or is near close. And in spite of this, the Mets are right there for the postseason. Players will only get healthier. The team can only improve given their talent, and series of circumstances. They are currently in the NL's final 4. Things aren't that bad in this context. Sure it's my assumption things can't get worse. But I seriously doubt the Mets can hit a peak of injuries higher than their present point. It's math. It's odds. It's life...as a sports fan.

Glass

Fenway: 2/3 Ain't Bad...

...especially with their C lineup. Watching the Mets 3rd string catcher hit one over the monster with 2 outs in the 9th -trailing- against an elite closer like Palpebon, was amazing. Especially since Palpebon was blowing fastballs past his opponents at a rate of 97, 98 mph and had been perfect in save opportunities thus far in 2009. That win, which guaranteed a series victory heading into the final day of the series, made the Mets losing cause and bullpen disaster, tolerable. The overall atmosphere at Fenway was enough of a positive mood-shifter that the loss seemed insignificant.

Mets fans infested the best park I've ever attended. I had a preconceived notion that the Bosox fans would be on the level of Phillies Fans. But this was not the case, as proven by a shot of these crazy Mets fans below that somehow lived or so I think. It seemed like the ratio was 1:4 of fans wearing Mets gear to those in Bosox gear.

Sawx fans were friendly, chatty, and ball-busting, but in a healthy way. The surrounding area rules and made me wish those car strip shops in Flushing would be gone as soon as yesterday. It was so lively. Bands, shops, food. I was envious. Seats were small, but it is so intimate. Not a bad spot in the place. Walking in there was like walking back through time; 3 years until their 100 year anniversary.

A Plea to Manuel: Avoid the Quick Hook

It's an obvious, cliche thing to point out, but I will anyway. Praising a guy for being stretched out because he pitched 6 2/3 innings really shows where the game has gone since the 80's. Twice already Manuel has taken out Santana too early, maybe 3 times already. All of which could have been wins. At this rate JJ Putz will shatter his career total for IP in one season, just a year after recovering from major arm surgery. It's no mystery why he has an inflamed elbow. Seriously, going deeper with the starters is a concept Manuel has to embrace if he wants to protect his bullpen in the long-run, a major managerial flaw their past two collapses. It all starts with the managing of the starters.